Congressional races round 2: Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho

Here’s part five of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Georgia has 13 representatives: 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats

Filing deadline May 2, primary July 15

Note that GA districts changed in 2005 due to Republican redistricting.

Hawaii has 2 representatives, both Democrats

Filing deadline July 22, primary Sept 20

Idaho has 2 representatives, both Republicans

Filing deadline March 21, primary May 27

District: GA-01

Location Southeastern GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic, including Valdosta and Hinesville

Representative Jack Kingston (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, Joe Nelson raised just over $100K, Kingston about 10 times as much

Current opponents Bill Gillespie

Demographics 63rd most Blacks (24.9%) and 54th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment Long shot, although Gillespie is a war veteran, which should play well here

District: GA-02

Location Southwestern GA, bordering FL and AL and including Columbus

Representative Sanford Bishop (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Notes on opponents Each raised about $25K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 23rd poorest district (median income = $30K), 37th most Blacks (47.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-03

Location Western GA, about in the middle of the state

Representative Lynn Westmoreland (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 76-24

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Notes on opponents neither raised much over $50,000

Current opponents None declared, but several considering (see WIKI)

Demographics 18th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-04

Location Eastern and northern suburbs of Atlanta

Representative Hank Johnson (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Catherine Davis raised $230 K to Johnson’s $786K.  Johnson replaced Cynthia McKinney and did even better than she did against Davis

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 31st most Blacks (52.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-05

Location Atlanta and some suburbs

Representative John Lewis (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 26-74

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 18th most Blacks (55.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-06

Location Northern central GA

Representative Tom Price (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Notes on opponents Steve Sinton raised $100K to Price’s $2 million

Current opponents Only a primary declared

Demographics 9th wealthiest (median income = $72K), and highest in the South

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-07

Location Northern central GA

Representative John Linder (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 37th wealthiest (med income = $60K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: GA-08

Location Central GA including Macon and Moultrie

Representative Jim Marshall (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In both 2004 and 2006, this was hotly contested, with the Republicans raising about the same as Marshall each time (roughly $1 million in 2004 and $2 million in 2006)

Current opponents  A primary from Steve Nowak, and in the general, Rick Goddard, the NRCC candidate

Demographics 78th most rural (43.4%), 41st most Blacks (32.4%).

Assessment Marshall is a DINO, and I don’t use that term lightly.  Is it worth it? I don’t really know. Would a more liberal Democrat have a chance in this district?  It partly depends on turnout.  This is one district where Obama may have coattails, in that I have to assume he would draw more Blacks into the race. But I can’t find much about Nowak.  Marshall is vulnerable, in any  case

District: GA-09

Location Northwestern GA, bordering TN, AL, and NC.

Representative Nathan Deal (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 77-23

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Joe Inman , maybe others

Demographics 38th most rural (52.7%), 7th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-10

Location The northern part of eastern GA, mostly bordering SC (but also NC) and including Macon and Augusta

Representative Paul Broun (R)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Bobby Saxon

Demographics 50th most rural (49.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-11

Location Northern part of western GA, bordering AL, including Rome and Marietta

Representative Phil Gingrey (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 57-43 (there was a redistricting)

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents In 2006, the opponent raised no money.  2004 is not really relevant

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 5th most Republican (per Cook PVI)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-12

Location Eastern GA, bordering SC, including Savannah and Augusta

Representative John Barrow (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin less than 1,000 votes, of 142,000

2004 margin 52-48

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents Max Burns, the opponent in both 2004 and 2006, raised lots of money; in 2004, he outspent Barrow by $1 million

Current opponents Chris Edenfield and Wayne Mosley and Ray McKinney; maybe others

Demographics 30th most Blacks (44.5%) and 33rd most people in poverty (21.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable

District: GA-13

Location An oddly shaped district, mostly west of Atlanta

Representative David Scott (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Notes on opponents Deborah Honeycutt, in 2006, raised $1.3 million, almost exactly even with Scott

Current opponents Honeycutt again

Demographics 30th most Blacks (41%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: HI-01

Location Honolulu and immediate environs

Representative Neil Abercrombie (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents In 2004, Dalton Tanoaka raised over $200K, Abercrombie about $1 million.  In 2006, Richard Hough raised very little

Current opponents Richard Hough (who lost in 2006)

Demographics The most nonWhite, nonLatinos, nonBlacks of any district, HI-01 is 53.6% Asian

Assessment Safe

District: HI-02

Location All of HI except Honolulu

Representative Mazie Hirono (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents Bob Hogue raised $200K to Hirono’s $1.4 million

Current opponents Bob Hogue

Demographics the second most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks, HI-02 is 28% Asian

Assessment Safe

District: ID-01

Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise

Representative Bill Sali (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents Larry Grant raised about $750K to Sali’s $1 million

Current opponents   Larry Grant

and

Rand Lewis (site down)

and

Walt Minnick

Sali is also being primaried

Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Even for a Republican, Sali is crazy. Even for an Idaho Republican Sali is crazy.  He’s really nuts.  He might even lose in this Republican stronghold (I hope he wins the primary)

District: ID-02

Location Eastern ID, bordering MT and WY

Representative Mike Simpson

First elected  1998

2006 margin 62-34

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Hansen raised $160K, to Sampson’s $570K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Long shot